The German Nuclear Phase-out 2026 Update

What the data shows

In 2010 German reactors generated 132.9 TWh, roughly a quarter of the country’s electricity. After the March 2011 moratorium idled eight fully operable plants, output fell year after year: 102.2 TWh in 2011, 32.8 TWh in 2022, 6.7 TWh in 2023, and zero from 2024 onward. Measured against the 2010 baseline, the cumulative shortfall through March 2026 is 1,086 TWh.

Renewables expanded quickly over the same period, but that growth displaced fossil generation only partly. Coal stations that might otherwise have closed kept running, and hourly grid analysis attributes 98% of the replacement to coal and 2% to gas up to 2023, with the gas share rising since. Annual emissions attributable to the phase-out peaked at 115.7 MtCO₂ in 2023.

The health and pollution burden

Applying standard health impact factors to the additional combustion gives 24,467 premature deaths from coal and 170 from gas — 24,637 in total — plus 224,026 serious illnesses. By the end of 2023 the extra generation had also released 2.3 million tonnes of sulphur oxides, 532,437 tonnes of nitrogen oxides, and about 30,000 tonnes of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀.

Heavy metals follow the same pattern: 3.9 tonnes of mercury, 20.6 tonnes of lead, and 2.5 tonnes of cadmium, almost all from coal. Unlike radioactivity, which decays, these accumulate in soils and water indefinitely. Set against the WHO worst-case estimate of about 4,000 deaths from Chernobyl, the phase-out’s air-pollution toll is roughly six times higher.

Why the phase-out happened

The report traces the Atomausstieg to the 2000 Atomkonsens, the anti-nuclear movement’s roots in the 1970s and 1980s, entrenched coal interests, and Angela Merkel’s reversal after Fukushima — months after her government had extended reactor lifetimes. The final three units closed in April 2023 during an energy crisis and despite majority public support for nuclear. The policy was never systematically reviewed as evidence on radiation risk, coal’s health costs, and carbon capture’s failure accumulated.

What the report covers

• Reactor-by-reactor shutdown timeline, capacity and closure dates for all 17 plants.
• Annual lost generation and attributable emissions, 2011 to March 2026.
• Health impact factors and outcomes for coal and gas, with pollutant inventories.
• Carbon costs year by year at EU ETS prices, and the per-household burden.
• Political and cultural history of the phase-out, and its implications for other countries.