Research paper
Nuclear economics
Published April 2024
2023 Report on Chinese Nuclear Power Generation and Costs Analysis
Prepared by SystemThree Capital — Tian Lan, Jinyang Zhu, Xiaofeng Ji, Kyle Kung. Research sponsored by the Anthropocene Institute.
China ended 2023 with 55 operating reactors, 26 under construction and 12 approved by the State Council. Expected total investment across all three groups is about CNY 1.6 trillion (USD 235 billion) for 100 GW of gross capacity — a unit cost of 15,873 CNY/KW, or 2,341 USD/KW, with an average construction duration of 73 months.
Key figures
2,341 USD/KW
Average unit reactor cost across all 91 reported reactors (15,873 CNY/KW)
Operational, under construction and approved
73 months
Average construction duration; 74 months for the 55 operating reactors, from 51 at the shortest to 131 at the longest
Duration rises with reactor generation
56.9 GW
Gross capacity in operation at year-end 2023, with 52.9 GW expected net capacity
55 reactors · CNY 841 billion invested
18.3%
Share of total expected cost attributable to financing; overnight construction accounts for the remaining 81.7%
21.2% for reactors already operating
Cost by construction status
The operating fleet is the cheapest of the three groups. Its 55 reactors cost CNY 840.81 billion for 56.9 GW, a unit cost of 14,755 CNY/KW (2,230 USD/KW), of which 21.2% is financing. The 24 reactors under construction for which financial data are available cost more per kilowatt — CNY 514.11 billion for 28.8 GW, or 18,283 CNY/KW (2,626 USD/KW) — but carry a lower financing share of 13.8% and a slightly shorter expected build time of 71 months. The 12 projects approved in 2023 sit between the two at CNY 237.45 billion for 14.68 GW, or 16,177 CNY/KW.
Cost also tracks reactor generation. Gen 2 units average 13,129 CNY/KW (1,972 USD/KW) with a 68-month build and 0.031 USD/KWh operating cost; Gen 3 units average 17,599 CNY/KW (2,561 USD/KW) with a 76-month build and 0.043 USD/KWh. The single Gen 4 unit deployed in December 2023 averages 43,748 CNY/KW (6,683 USD/KW) over a 131-month build, with financing at 29% of cost and no operating-cost figure yet available.
Reactors by construction status, year-end 2023
Status
Units
Cost (bn CNY)
Gross MW
USD/KW
Months
Operational
55
840.81
56,930
2,230
74
Under construction
24
514.11
28,830
2,626
71
Approved
12
237.45
14,682
2,279
74
Total
91
1,592.37
100,442
2,341
73
Where the reactors are built
All Chinese nuclear plants sit in eight coastal eastern provinces, near large industrial and population centers. Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian host 35 of the 55 operating reactors. Newly approved and under-construction units remain within the same eight provinces, with Shandong, Liaoning and Hainan set for the largest growth: from 11 reactors to 24, and from 10.7 GW to 26.2 GW of gross capacity.
Populous inland provinces such as Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi remain under discussion but are neither prioritized nor approved. Sichuan faces frequent earthquakes, and the Bohai Sea — the nearest sea to Beijing — is shallow and semi-enclosed with limited self-cleaning capacity, making it comparable to an inland site in a region home to more than 100 million people. Demand around Beijing has nonetheless kept construction moving there: Hongyanhe operates at the far end of the Bohai Sea, two units at Xudapu are under construction, and a six-reactor, 7.2 GW project at Haixing about 200 km from Beijing is expected to seek State Council approval.
How to cite this report
Lan, T., Zhu, J., Ji, X., & Kung, K. (2024). 2023 Report on Chinese Nuclear Power Generation and Costs Analysis. SystemThree Capital, sponsored by the Anthropocene Institute.
Full report
This page summarizes the public summary document. The detailed report and its supporting data are available on request from the Anthropocene Institute — get in touch.