California Grid Project
Grid modelling
September 2024
A New View of California’s Decarbonization Plan
A Report of the California Grid Project
By Leonard Rodberg, PhD — Professor Emeritus of Urban Studies, Queens College/CUNY, and Research Director, Nuclear New York. September 2024. Project support provided by the Alex C. Walker Foundation and the Anthropocene Institute.
The Anthropocene Institute is proud to sponsor Dr. Leonard Rodberg’s analysis of California’s efforts to decarbonize its electric grid under Senate Bill 100 (SB 100). This ambitious plan aims to achieve a 100% greenhouse gas-free electricity grid by 2045, in line with the state’s goals to be a climate leader.
Utilizing a sophisticated hour-by-hour modeling tool, the identified the challenges of relying heavily on intermittent renewable power. Even with nearly $1 trillion in planned investments for solar, wind, and battery storage, the continued reliance on natural gas underscores the urgent need for a reliable, scalable, and emission-free resource.
What the modelling shows
100% by 2045
The greenhouse gas-free electricity grid required of California under SB 100
~$1 trillion
Planned investment in solar, wind and battery storage under the current plan
Hour by hour
The modelling resolution used to test the plan against real demand and supply patterns
81%
“Our model excludes transmission losses, and yet we find that, in 2045, California’s grid will be burning 81% as much gas as it is now.”
The findings strongly advocate for lifting California’s moratorium on new nuclear installations. Nuclear power emerges as the only viable, scalable solution capable of providing the firm, dispatchable, and emission-free energy required to meet the state’s goals. By investing in nuclear, California can chart a path toward achieving decarbonization more effectively and cost-efficiently.
This research underscores a clear message: without a mix of diverse power sources, the vision of a truly sustainable energy future for California will remain out of reach. Our commitment to supporting actionable insights like these is driven by the belief that California’s leadership can inspire transformative change worldwide.