研究

Data regarding nuclear reactor construction, financing, and operation have often been conflicting and sparse. The Anthropocene Institute is working with informed partners to address this data challenge. This collaborative effort will provide insights into cost with as little bias as possible. This first report focuses on China. (Other country analyses are in process.) The Anthropocene Institute in collaboration with GreenPrizm (a data and analytics infrastructure company located in the Greater Bay Area, China) completed a deep dive into data (mostly available in Chinese supplemented with a few relevant non-Chinese sources) to understand nuclear-reactor-related costs in China. These data will provide a richer and more accurate view of the Chinese nuclear power industry.  Over time, we will publish reports on multiple countries to provide an objective, curated data source to facilitate more accurate cost comparisons and analyses.

As of the end of 2023, China had 55 operational nuclear reactors with a gross capacity of 56.9 GW and a net capacity of 52.9 GW. In addition, 26 reactors are under construction and 12 are approved for future construction. The total investment across operational, under-construction, and approved reactors exceeds CNY 1.5 trillion (USD 211 billion) for 100 GW of gross capacity, resulting in an estimated unit cost of 15,873 CNY/KW (2,341 USD/KW). [Note that all costs were estimated first in terms of China's Yuan per Kilowatt of capacity or CNY/KW. The Chinese currency amounts were than translated into US Dollars per Kilowatt of capacity or USD/KW using conventional exchange rate assumptions.]

For the 55 operational reactors, total costs amount to CNY 841 billion with a unit cost of 14,755 CNY/KW (2,230 USD/KW). Construction durations averaged 74 months, with second-generation reactors having the shortest build duration. Operating costs for these reactors is estimated in the range of 0.22 to 0.31 CNY/KWh (0.03 to 0.04 USD/KWh). For the 24 reactors currently under construction, total investment is CNY 514.1 billion, adding 28.8 GW to capacity at an average unit cost of 18,283 CNY/KW. Financing costs account for 14% of these investments, and average construction duration is 71 months.

In 2023, 12 new reactors were approved, requiring CNY 237.45 billion in investment to provide 14.68 GW of capacity with an average unit cost of 16,177 CNY/KW. Chinese nuclear plants are primarily located in eight eastern provinces near major industrial and population centers. The provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Fujian host the majority of operational reactors. Inland provinces like Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi are under consideration but face delays due to seismic activity and other concerns.

Construction durations for nuclear projects vary, with the longest periods seen in the first implementations of Gen 3 technologies, such as Haiyang, Sanmen, and Taishan, which exceeded 105 months. Shidao Bay has the highest unit cost at 43,748 CNY/KW due to the complexity of its Gen 4 reactor. Financing costs are notably high for Daya Bay at 39%, and for Haiyang, Sanmen, and Taishan at around 27-28%, due to extended construction periods.

These data demonstrate that nuclear power capacity can be built at  reasonable cost and ultimately leads to unusually low operating costs-- especially when compared to other carbon-emission-free energy sources.

* GreenPrizm is a data and analytics infrastructure firm located in the China Greater Bay Area focused on data curation, reporting, monitoring, corporate governance advisory, and risk management in implementing sustainability and energy transition strategies.